逻辑思维，Mindware：Tools for smart thinking

 理查德•尼斯贝特

逻辑思维是可以训练的

• 认知升级

• 新的概念会帮助人的理解：博弈论，沉默成本，机会成本

• 数学

人是怎么思考的

• 解释

• 信息的顺序很重要

• 30%的死亡率 ~= 70%的存活率

• 情景塑造想法

• 绿色和蓝色能提高创造力

• 红色的边框能增加点击率

• 放一个脸型的椰子能增加小费

• 性感有趣的名字更容易吸引消费者

• 社会促进效应，competition

• 无意识，潜意识

• 长，短

• 大脑的自动纠错

• 典型性启发

• 价格启发

• 效果启发

• 稀缺性启发

• 极端的小概率事件

• 多看效应（mere familiarity effect）

• 人们喜欢自己熟悉的东西

• 充分利用潜意识

• 除非有草稿，否则写作不会开始

• 开始去做

• 人的大脑晚上也在工作

对未来最好的指标就是过去的表现

• 成立：不那么容易改变的指标：认知能力，阅读，运动

• 不一定成立：

有哪些思维工具

• 基本归因谬误：低估环境，高估自我因素（自我归因偏差）

• 人类行为更多的受外在环境影响，而不是个体内在因素

• 是否会帮助他人

• 经济学思维

• 成本

• 损失了的最大的机会成本

• 成本收益分析

• 沉默成本不是成本

• 只考虑未来的陈本和收益

• 机会成本

• 未选项中的最大收益

• 概率统计

• 大数定律：测量越多，平均值离真值就越近

• 选取的样本没有偏差

• 98%的值会在两个标准差之间

• 68%会在一个标准差之内

• 先验概率和后验概率

• 选择偏差

• 观察的值是否可准确编码：品行，能力

• 相关性和因果性

• 进化论

• 掩饰缺陷，厌恶损失

• 改变现状，

• A/B Test

• 多元回归分析

• 自我选择

• 逻辑分析

• 韦恩图

• 三个定律

• 同一律: A = A

• 否定率：A => not A is false

• 排他率：A | not A = True

• 辩证法（东方思维）的三个基本假设

• 变化才是唯一不变的东西

• 改变环境能改变人

• 矛盾论

• 系统论（整体>部分之和）

• 逻辑（二元论）

• 科学思维

• 可证伪

Smart Pricing by Jagmohan Raju, Z. John Zhang

 2015 by Pearson Education

How to set prices?

• Different Pricing Methods

• Cost-Plus

• Competition-based

• Consumer-Based

Impact of Profit Levels in U.S. 2004

• Price, + 10%

• Variable Cost, +6%

• Sales Quantity, +3%

• Fixed Cost, 2%

Examples of Pricing Methods

	How it works?	Examples	When it works
Pay as you wish	People value goods/services differently - no need to set price (save labor)	Denotation Music download Theaters Gift	-cross-selling (music download->ticket) -low marginal cost -fair-minded customer  *loyalty fans -wide price range -strong relationship between buyer and seller -competitive marketplace
Free	-risk free 0 >> 1 cent -mass audience -cross-selling (no free launch) - hard to beat	Google services (e.g., search, gmail) Wikipedia -crowd sourcing -news	-low marginal cost
Price Wars	Breakeven sales increase in percentage (reduction in marginal cost) -increase sales/market share -decrease variable cost	Color TVs Microwave Oven	-good timing (inventory) -competitors were unprepared -contribution margin -easy substitution
Thank Small	-reframing the money by “per day” -people will eat more/buy more if the offer is a single larger box	0.99 (+5% sales) Larger Package Interest per day/month Supersize Casinos-1 cent machine Rent ratio Virtual Money Fractional ownership/time-sharing Stock units
Pay more	Status effect Reassurance High-price -> high quality	Tesla Membership fee Black card iPhone Hedge fund Special Neighbors Labor market Luxury goods	Be careful about discount (offer more value for the same price instead of discounting)
Automatic Mark down	-slow-motion Dutch auction -price sensitive vs. time sensitive -add time pressure	Red-White-Blue	Limit supply (scarcity) -Fashion product (time value) High retail traffic  -People aware the change
Name you own price	Price discrimination Target pricing	Priceline
Subscribe Fee	-Marketing Profitability (user oriented) vs. account Profitability (product oriented)	Super-market Disney park Costco
Pay by Performance	Win-win (maximize the pie) Lower-risk Focus on value-reduce price competition	Realtor agent Lawyer Medical treatment	Outcome can be verifiable Outcome is valuable to both Who verify the result?

The making of a manager?

by Julie Zhuo

Was VP of Facebook, first Facebook intern

What’s a manager’s main job: 3P?

• Purpose (set a vision): what should we do? Why we do it?

• Vision: what success look like

• Concrete vision: what’s the difference it will make?

• People

• What’s their unique value? How to capitalize it?

• Do they know how to do good work? Skill

• Do they want to do good work? Motivation

• Process: to get thing done

• How your team work together?

What’s the next big problem that your team can take on?

How can you help to make it happen?

How to measure the contribution?

• How much a multiplier effect? (get better outcome from a group of people working together)

Feedback is a gift

• Project/task specific

• Behavior

• Positive Action?

• Specific

• Clarify what success looks and feels like

• Suggest next steps

• Set clear expectations at the beginning

• Every major disappointment is a failure to set expectations

Start to manage?

• Create a list of things that can be better?

• Prioritize them

Manage yourself

• Strength and weakness?

• What you value most?

• What’s your trigger?

Manage small team

• 1:1

• What’s the priority?

• What does great look like?

• Provide feedback

• 
  

• What skills do you think I should work on in order to have more impact?

• 
  

• What’s the biggest challenge?

• Identify

• Understand

• Suport

• 
  

• Meeting

• Decision

• What to decide?

• What’s the possible choices? Their impact? Is it easily reversible? 

• Who will be impacted? Are they invited?

• After decision

• Who will do it by when?

• Braining storming

• Post-it notes

• Think alone and prepare 

• Status update

• Providing feedback

• vision

Manage big team

• Hiring top talent

Skill needs

• Switch context

• Delegate well

Reflection everyday

A good manager

• Caring: care about your reports and what them to be more successful. 

Portfolio Approach

• ⅓ short term

• ⅓ mid-term

• ⅓ long-term